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Music Industry – 2021 Predictions

The global live music business has shed a staggering $18bn in value in 2020, according to new PwC analysis. The recovery, however, will be swift!

Live Music
Live Music

The money generated by live music ticket sales and sponsorships has fallen 64% in 2020, with nearly US$18 billion having been wiped off the value of the international concert industry this year alone.

This year marks the first time since the great recording industry slump of the 2000s – when touring overtook physical sales as artists’ main source of revenue – that the recorded sector (including digital) has been worth more than live, reflecting continued strong growth in music streaming, particularly during the Covid-19 era.

In total, live music will generate a projected $10.4bn ($8.3bn ticket sales + $2.1bn sponsorship) in 2020 – down from nearly $29bn in 2019, and far short of the $30.4bn generated by recorded music this year, according to the report. The fall in live revenues has also helped wiped some $17bn off the value of the global music industry as a whole.

Music streaming specifically is worth $20.4bn in 2020, with a predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.32% up to and including 2024.

But it’s not all bad news for live. Far from it: The 2020–2024 Outlook shows that live music will rebound in 2021, with worldwide revenues growing by 82.6%, to over $19bn, as concerts resume.

Goldman Sachs’ annual report on the music industry has estimated live music, recorded music, and publishing will pull in a combined $57.5bn in 2020 globally, down about 29 per cent from its original forecast. “We expect a strong rebound in outer years, with the live music industry nearly returning to its pre-COVID-19 level by 2022,” Goldman’s research team, led by media and Internet equity research managing director Lisa Yang, writes in the report, according to Rolling Stone.

Goldman Sachs’ long-term growth forecast predicts a 26-per-cent rise in 2021 and an 18-per-cent increase in 2022, with compound annual growth rate (CAGR) settling in at 6 per cent for the period of 2019 to 2030.

“For sectors adversely affected by the pandemic, this has brought forward some of the digital disruption prophesied to come years later, and it has reinforced the digitisation of the industry. This is reflected in [the fact that] industries that are forecast to claw back their lost revenue are ones being driven by, or have embraced, technology as a way to connect with consumers.”

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